The Iran war raises the possibility of a prolonged energy shock. Markets and news are moving quickly, and outcomes remain deeply uncertain. Rather than attempt to forecast geopolitical developments, we focus on what we know.

The recent “Global Intelligence Crisis” scenario has amplified concerns that AI-driven displacement of white-collar labor could undermine consumption and destabilize economic growth. While these fears are understandable, history suggests that transformative technologies have repeatedly reshaped, not collapsed, economic systems.